Fitra Faisal, Senior Economist at Samuel Securitas, revealed in the weekly analysis that Indonesia’s economic growth has managed to surpass projections, recording a 5.11% increase. This figure is higher than the previous estimate of 5.07%, even surpassing the market consensus of 5.08%. However, it remains below the government’s target of 5.17%, indicating challenges amidst global economic dynamics.
According to Fitra, this achievement demonstrates Indonesia’s economy’s resilience despite external pressures, particularly from geopolitics. However, there are concerns that the momentum of economic growth could slow down in the subsequent quarters. Factors such as elections, Eid al-Fitr, and incentive programs implemented in the first quarter may not continue, resulting in lower growth in the future.
Fitra also highlights the decline in Indonesia’s foreign reserves by $4.2 billion, reaching $136 billion. This has prompted Bank Indonesia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This step was taken to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, which is threatened by pressures on foreign reserves.
Fitra predicts that the rupiah exchange rate may strengthen in the next week, despite significant domestic pressures, particularly from dividend payments. He estimates that the rupiah will remain in the range of 16,000s, but there is potential to touch the 15,900 level if external pressures are not too strong.
Meanwhile, in the financial markets, Fitra sees potential for strengthening in the stock sector, especially those related to commodities or energy. The Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) has the potential to strengthen, with sectors such as basic and energy indices being the main focus.
Although Indonesia’s economy shows good resilience amidst external pressures, challenges cannot be ignored. The decline in foreign reserves demands action from Bank Indonesia, while the rupiah exchange rate and financial market conditions need to be closely monitored. With potential strengthening in certain sectors, market participants are expected to anticipate risks and seize opportunities.
